Election-Betting Markets vs. Presidential Polls, Explained | WSJ

While polls show former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris in a dead heat in the final stretch of the 2024 election, the GOP nominee is dominating the Democratic candidate in the betting markets. Once banned by federal regulators, Americans can now legally gamble on elections in prediction markets. Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket have emerged as websites to place yes-or-no contracts.

WSJ reporter Alexander Osipovich explains how these markets work, what they could tell us
about the outcome of the election and the implications of trading on the future of the country.

Chapters:
0:00 Election betting is legal
0:36 How it works
2:39 Prediction markets vs. polls
3:58 The reliability of betting markets

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